JameisLoseston wrote:Having tracked Stafford's performance closely every year he's been in the league, honestly, 2011 and this season are the only ones where I think he's done enough in comparison to other QBs in the same season to warrant Pro Bowl selection, especially given that he's rarely been on winning teams. He tends to have high yardage and low touchdown totals, and average around high-end QB2 fantasy production. Nothing worthy of honors most of the time, imo. Going forward, however, he could very well start making it more years than not.
His touchdown stats aren't as good as the yardage stats which are close to the best ever. But they are still great. Most HOF players stats are better in either yardage or touchdowns. I'll agree touchdown averages should be weighed a bit more(hence why I don't think he's better than guys like Rodgers,Brady or Peyton). Stafford at 33 is already in the 300 TD club and has thrown for 40 touchdowns and 30 three times now. Of the players near the top of the career passing TD's list these are their averages(made Eli's 1.55 the minimum). These players except Marino mostly benefited from the inflated passing stats. Only the very best HOF QB's have his sample size scoring TD's at a higher clip. Cousins has the same average but he's thrown 100 less touchdowns. Even with a MUCH smaller sample size only 3 QB's from the most pass friendly era are throwing TD's at a higher clip than Stafford(could be missing someone but think I checked everyone). Josh Allen a fourth is the only QB coming close. Kyler Murray who just beat Stafford for the pro bowl is averaging TD's at a slower clip than Eli Manning. He has already been to the pro bowl twice as has Goff.
Mahomes 2.41(much smaller sample size)
Hebert 2.13(much smaller sample size)
Rodgers 2.11
Peyton 2.03
Brees 1.99
Luck 1.99
Brady 1.96
Watson 1.93(much smaller sample size)
Wilson 1.83
Stafford 1.77
Cousins 1.77
Marino 1.74
Rivers 1.73
Josh Allen 1.71
Warner 1.68
Favre 1.68
Ben 1.68
Ryan 1.66
Wentz 1.66
Prescott 1.63
Winston 1.63
Palmer 1.62
Romo 1.59
Eli 1.55
In terms of pro bowls I can see why you wouldn't put down 2012 where he was 4-12 and had a lot picks regardless of almost doing 5k a second straight year. But in 2016,2017 he had winning records and played really well. I can see the case for him not making it in 2014 but if the issue is winning he played better in all his winning seasons and at this point there's been 5 of those. Thinking he would make it every single year he had a winning team and played well is too much to ask but he has 1 pro bowl out of 5 winning seasons.
Anyhow him having a better chance going forward with the Rams is why it was so frustrating to see him not get picked this year(in a year where QB play as a collective has not been that great). The sad thing is if he misses the super bowl he likely will make it as an alternate(all the other likely NFC contenders have pro bowl QB's) but if he makes the super bowl and proves everyone wrong he won't. But even just 2 or 3 doesn't look good for a HOF case though I guess titles could overcome that.
There's also the element of him being the QB for 2 of the greatest statistical seasons. Before this could be chalked up to Calvin Johnsons unprecedented talent but with the success of Kupp this is no longer the case.
