Teams that barely missed the playoffs

[7DnBrnc53]

How would these teams have done if they got in?

1984 Cardinals
1985 Broncos
1986 Seahawks
1987 Cardinals
1989 Packers

[BD Sullivan]

*The 84 Cardinals won three of their last four and came up just short in that loss (the Washington finale). That loss seemed to symbolize their season, since their seven losses came by a TOTAL of 37 points. Good, but not good enough.

*The 85 Broncos went 5-2 in their last seven games, with both losses coming by a FG in OT against the Raiders. That run began with the infamous snowball XP in the MNF game against the Raiders. Unlike the Cardinals the year before, they seemed to get the breaks--those five wins came by a total of 19 points, with one of them on a TD return of a blocked FG in OT against the Chargers.

*The 86 Seahawks look like the most dangerous group in this bunch. They won their last five games, thanks to an offense that was on fire--averaging 36 points in those wins. Had they beaten out KC, that would have made for a fascinating matchup against a Jets team that looked to be the exact opposite: 0-5 in the last five games and allowing just under 37 points in those losses. That would have sent them to Cleveland against a flat Browns team--until the final four minutes of regulation.

*The 87 Cards are literally a wild card situation here, since it was pretty much a given that they were moving after that year. Still, nothing really awe-inspiring about this team makes me think they would have gotten past the Saints or the 49ers. Their two scab losses (versus one win) came against the Redskins and 49ers, but the real Redskins handled them (34-17) late in the season.

*The 89 Packers had the huge upset in San Francisco during the regular season, but would have had to face them in the first round. The Niners went 5-0 after that Packers loss and blasted Minnesota (41-13) in the first round, which would have been the case with GB as well--especially with the revenge angle and the extreme contrast in playoff experience.

[Rupert Patrick]

How would these teams have done if they got in?

1984 Cardinals
1985 Broncos
1986 Seahawks
1987 Cardinals
1989 Packers

1984 Cardinals - Had they beaten Washington in Week 16, would have been 10-6 and been number 2 seed. They would have hosted Chicago in the Divisional round. The Bears were formidable but were not quite the team they would be in 1985, but I think the Cards would have won. Against the 49ers in Candlestick, I think it St. Louis would have kept it close but San Fran would have won.

1985 Broncos - Lost a tiebreaker to New England for the number five seed. Had they won the tiebreaker, they would have gone to New York to face the Jets. Elway was still inconsistent at the time, O'Brien was a much better QB at the moment, the Jets had a much better running game in McNeil/Hector, and had the third best defense while Denver was 13th. Also, I'm not sure where the game would have been played due to the tiebreakers, which was another matter, but even with the tiebreakers, I see the Jets winning this one.

However, the Broncos went 11-5 to the Raiders 12-4, and Denver lost a pair of OT games to the Silver and Black by a FG; if they had won either of those games, they would have won the division if everything else had held the same. In that scenario, Miami also went 12-4 but Miami beat Denver 30-26, so Denver is the number two seed, and it sets up a wild card game of Jets at the Raiders at LA, since the Raiders beat New York in the regular season. If the game holds the same as it did in reality, it sends the Raiders to Miami and Cleveland to Denver for the Divisional games. I would not bet against Marino in this one. I also think Elway would have handled the Browns at Mile High, which would have set up a Denver at Miami AFC Championship. I think it would have went much like the regular season game, Dolphins by four.

1986 Seahawks - A streaky team, at 10-6 went thru a horrid 2-6 mid-season stretch but won their final five to finish 10-6, but there were three other teams tied for the final two wild card slots (Jets, Chiefs and Bengals) and the Seahawks and Bengals were eliminated. At their best, which they were playing at the end of the year, this team was as good as anybody in the NFL, the problem was, you never knew which team would show up. But the road they would have had to face, from playing the Jets, and then Cleveland, and then Denver or New England, would likely have been too great playing all their games on the road. They played all three potential wild card teams, lost to the Chiefs in Arrowhead 27-7, lost to the Bengals in Cincinnati 34-7, and the Jets buried them in the Kingdome 38-7. These games were during the bad streak, but I just don't know which team would have shown up for the Wild Card game. I think they might have gotten into the Divisional round, but the Browns would have taken them out.

1987 Cardinals - Had they gotten into the playoffs instead of the Vikings, I don't think they would have beaten the Saints in NO 44-10. For one thing, the Cards did have a good offense, but their defense was 23rd in points allowed, 25th in yards allowed. Their scabs beat the Saints scabs 24-19 in Week 4 24-19 thanks to 2 fumbles returned for TD's. I know the Saints were tight going into the Wild Card game, but the Vikings were a better team than the Cardinals. New Orleans would have found a way to win this game.

1989 Packers - Finished 10-6, lost a divisional tiebreaker to the Vikings; had they won the tiebreaker, they would have been the number three seed. In that scenario, they would have faced the 49ers had everything else held as it did. In the regular season, the Packers upset the 49ers in Candlestick 21-17, but lightning seldom strikes twice. The 49ers get their revenge and beat the Packers to advance to the Championship Game.

Alternate scenario - The Packers lost a 41-38 shootout to the Rams in Week 3. Had the Packers won this game, it would have changed the dynamics of the NFC playoff race considerably. For one thing, had everything else stayed the same, Green Bay would have been outright NFC Central champs at 11-5. Philadelphia would have remained the number four seed/top Wild Card at 11-5, and the Rams loss would put them at 10-6 and set up a three way tiebreaker battle with the Rams, Vikings and Redskins for the final tiebreaker. I'm not sure how that tiebreaker would turn out; Ivan Urena is the only person who can figure that one out.

I'm going to add two teams to the mix:

1979 Redskins - They defeated Dallas 34-28 in the week 16 finale thanks to a interception of a Staubach pass in the final 90 seconds deep in Washington territory, making Washington the number one seed. Tamps Bay and Los Angeles are the number two and three seeds, respectively, with 10-6 Dallas (thanks to the loss to Washington) travelling to 11-5 Philadelphia for the Wild Card game. The Wild Card game was a tough contest, but in the end, I think the upstart Eagles would have won by a FG. This would have set up a Philadelphia at TB game as what really happened, with the Bucs winning, and the Rams travelling to RFK to take on the Redskins.

I have a system for figuring the winners of postseason games based on historical trends, and I replaced the 1979 Cowboys with the 1979 Redskins as the top seed, and replaced the Bears with the Cowboys as the number five seed, and ran it. It had the Redskins defeating the Bucs by a point, beating the Rams by four and the Eagles by two, and beating Dallas by two. If my system has has the game within three points, it means it can go either way. It has the 1979 NFC Postseason figured out with the probabilities of each team winning the NFC Championship at Tampa Bay 25 percent, Washington 22, LA 21, Philadelphia 19, and Dallas 13 percent. In all the years I've been running these kinds of scenarios, I've never seen five teams grouped so close. With Washington in the 1979 playoff, you could replay it five times and every team could conceivably win.

1967 Colts - The Colts would have beaten the Rams in Week 14 and went into Green Bay with an 12-0-2 record. Anybody think the Packers could have contained them? I don't think so, but Shula had a problem with losing big games he had no business losing.

[CSKreager]

How would these teams have done if they got in?

1984 Cardinals
1985 Broncos
1986 Seahawks
1987 Cardinals
1989 Packers

1987 Cardinals - Had they gotten into the playoffs instead of the Vikings, I don't think they would have beaten the Saints in NO 44-10. For one thing, the Cards did have a good offense, but their defense was 23rd in points allowed, 25th in yards allowed. Their scabs beat the Saints scabs 24-19 in Week 4 24-19 thanks to 2 fumbles returned for TD's. I know the Saints were tight going into the Wild Card game, but the Vikings were a better team than the Cardinals. New Orleans would have found a way to win this game.

Worth noting that they literally a dropped pass from the playoffs:

http://articles.latimes.com/1987-09-21/ ... _cardinals

[CSKreager]

Let me throw in two other ones:

1983 Saints/1983 Packers

Both literally were eliminated on the same day at almost the same time on last-minute field goals.

But suppose one of those kicks by Bob Thomas/Mike Lansford misses. Could either have them sprung a surprise on a vulnerable Dallas (after those Washington/San Fran losses)?

Compared to the '83 Rams which were basically Eric Dickerson and nothing else.....

[Rupert Patrick]

Let me throw in two other ones:

1983 Saints/1983 Packers

Both literally were eliminated on the same day at almost the same time on last-minute field goals.

But suppose one of those kicks by Bob Thomas/Mike Lansford misses. Could either have them sprung a surprise on a vulnerable Dallas (after those Washington/San Fran losses)?

Compared to the '83 Rams which were basically Eric Dickerson and nothing else.....

I think either the Saints or Packers could have beaten Dallas in the Wild Card game, but they would have run into a buzzsaw in Washington. The Redskins beat the Rams 51-7 in the Divisional game. I don't think New Orleans or Green Bay would have fared much better.

[74_75_78_79_]

Let me throw in two other ones:

1983 Saints/1983 Packers

Both literally were eliminated on the same day at almost the same time on last-minute field goals.

But suppose one of those kicks by Bob Thomas/Mike Lansford misses. Could either have them sprung a surprise on a vulnerable Dallas (after those Washington/San Fran losses)?

Compared to the '83 Rams which were basically Eric Dickerson and nothing else.....

I think either the Saints or Packers could have beaten Dallas in the Wild Card game, but they would have run into a buzzsaw in Washington. The Redskins beat the Rams 51-7 in the Divisional game. I don't think New Orleans or Green Bay would have fared much better.

Pack DID beat Wash in that classic MNF track meet, 48-47. Such a dangerous team they would have been had they gotten in, like the '89 Bengals - which team shows up? Destroy the Bucs, 55-13 (record 49 pts in 1st half), only to allow them to bring them to OT in their low-scoring 12-9 rematch. 5 OT games total the '83 Pack had, one of them that historically overlooked scoring-fest, 41-47 loss in AtL.

[BD Sullivan]

Let me throw in two other ones:

1983 Saints/1983 Packers

Both literally were eliminated on the same day at almost the same time on last-minute field goals.

But suppose one of those kicks by Bob Thomas/Mike Lansford misses. Could either have them sprung a surprise on a vulnerable Dallas (after those Washington/San Fran losses)?

Compared to the '83 Rams which were basically Eric Dickerson and nothing else.....

I think either the Saints or Packers could have beaten Dallas in the Wild Card game, but they would have run into a buzzsaw in Washington. The Redskins beat the Rams 51-7 in the Divisional game. I don't think New Orleans or Green Bay would have fared much better.

Pack DID beat Wash in that classic MNF track meet, 48-47. Such a dangerous team they would have been had they gotten in, like the '89 Bengals - which team shows up? Destroy the Bucs, 55-13 (record 49 pts in 1st half), only to allow them to bring them to OT in their low-scoring 12-9 rematch. 5 OT games total the '83 Pack had, one of them that historically overlooked scoring-fest, 41-47 loss in AtL.

In nine seasons, Starr only took them to one postseason--and it was the in '82, when plenty of garbage teams made it. The MNF win over Washington falls under the "home dog hyped to the max"-and that win came at the very end. No way they repeat that on New Years Day in Washington.

[MatthewToy]

What about the 1990 Steelers? They went into the final game of the season needing to beat the Cody Carlson led Houston Oilers in the "House of Pain". Where the Steelers had won 2 of the last 3. Had the won, they win the AFC Central and get a home playoff game. They lost and didn't even get a wild card. Had they won they likely would've played the Bengals and at that time they didn't play them well so I don't think they would've done much anyway.

[74_75_78_79_]

What about the 1990 Steelers? They went into the final game of the season needing to beat the Cody Carlson led Houston Oilers in the "House of Pain". Where the Steelers had won 2 of the last 3. Had the won, they win the AFC Central and get a home playoff game. They lost and didn't even get a wild card. Had they won they likely would've played the Bengals and at that time they didn't play them well so I don't think they would've done much anyway.

Bengals, pretty much, got the best of the 'Burgh all through the '80s and 1990. No reason not to think they would have one-and-doned them in Three Rivers. Cincy's D simply 'came alive' against them weeks #11 & #13. That Steeler team played even better down the stretch, going into the finale, than they did the previous year. Three wins in a row that December while not allowing a TD. There was a fourth game earlier on vs AtL in which they also didn't allow a TD not to mention holding Jets to 7 and Houston to 9 (TD and safety) in Week #2. Buried the Rams at home on MNF, 41-10 (Rams ran opening kickoff back for a TD), foreshadowing the great MNF-triumphs to soon come in the Cowher Era. After that dreadful, Walton-assisted 1-3 start, that #1 yards-allowed D (#3 in pts allowed, #3 in takeaways - all this w/out a real pass-rush) propelled them 8-3 rest of the way until falling flat to Cody, setting the tone to that sad, disappointing final season under Noll the following year.