Broncos' Loss

[Jeremy Crowhurst]

Norv got the Chargers to the AFC Championship, which Marty hadn't done. Callahan got the Raiders to the Super Bowl, which Gruden hadn't done. Pardee did better with the Oilers than Glanville had done. There are about 15 examples of a playoff coach leaving (fired or otherwise) and the replacement doing a bit better either the following year or within a couple of years.

[Apbaball]

Really bad loss for the Broncos today. You have to now wonder if this isn't the beginning of the end for John Fox in Denver. It just seems that whatever he's done to improve them in his tenure there has been undone by his various failures, and it may just be time for the organization to move on.

Also, Manning had a terrible game, especially by his standards. What is with the guy and the playoffs? Any theories as to why the postseason has been a recurring problem for him?

In baseball they tried to explain some stars poor postseason performance by stars by citing stats that show they fattened up against poor pitching during the regular season. In the post season when they faced nothing but the elite pitchers they struggled, sometimes more so than other hitters. In other words they were mistake hitters.
Perhaps some QBs are excellent at taking advantage of poor defenses but become similar to other QBs against the tough defenses. This is where some sabermetrics would be helpful; how does Manning stats compare to his peers against the elite pass defenses?

I know the game was pretty much over by the last drive but I noticed the contrast between how Manning handled it and how Favre probably would have. Favre who received a lot of criticism for forcing the ball and throwing interceptions usually took high risk high reward chances and statisics be dammed. Sure, Favre made a lot of bad decisions at other times but I'll bet quite a few of his INTs came when his team had little chance to win but he was trying to make big plays at the expense of his stats. With two minutes left and down by eleven, I would rather see a QB throw an interception down the field than three ot four short passes of less than 5 yards and eat up all the remaining time.

[Jeremy Crowhurst]

The stuff about Manning and the playoffs is mostsly just noise. The difference between his regular season numbers and his playoff numbers isn't that different from any of the QBs you'd compare him to. But you look at the games where he dropped a pootie and the common thread is the coaching -- Jeff Fisher, Dave Wannstedt, Herm Edwards twice, Belichick three times, Billick with Rex Ryan, Pete Carroll. There are some great defensive coaches in there, and some really great defenses.

What I've never seen anybody mention is that four of his worst playoff performances -- pass ratings of 71.9, 39.6, 79.1, and 81.8 -- were the four games in the 2006 season that ended with the Super Bowl ring, while some of his best performances were one-and-dones in 07, 08, and 10.

I tend to agree with the Football Outsiders' analysis of the Manning-era Colts. Polian wasn't trying to build a dynasty. He had his offense, and was mostly assembling defenses with the goal that they wouldn't suck enough that the offense would carry them all the way. One could argue with some force that given that approach, the Colts were lucky to end up with even one ring.

[Bryan]

I tend to agree with the Football Outsiders' analysis of the Manning-era Colts. Polian wasn't trying to build a dynasty. He had his offense, and was mostly assembling defenses with the goal that they wouldn't suck enough that the offense would carry them all the way. One could argue with some force that given that approach, the Colts were lucky to end up with even one ring.

Not quite sure what any of this means...

Polian wasn't trying to build a dynasty? So if he had a good draft class one year, he would intentionally tank the next year just so the Colts wouldn't become a dynasty?

Polian's goal was that the defense wouldn't suck enough that the offense would carry them all the way? So if Polian had a chance to acquire a HOF defensive talent, he would instead choose a defensive player of lesser talent so the Colts offense could continue to carry the team?

But I do agree that if the Colts weren't trying to build a dynasty or assemble a good defense, one could argue with some force that the Colts were lucky to end up with even one ring. I would think that 11 playoff appearances in 12 years for the Manning-era Colts would contradict the idea that Polian wasn't trying, but I will defer to Football Outsiders' expertise on this matter.

[Apbaball]

The stuff about Manning and the playoffs is mostsly just noise. The difference between his regular season numbers and his playoff numbers isn't that different from any of the QBs you'd compare him to. But you look at the games where he dropped a pootie and the common thread is the coaching -- Jeff Fisher, Dave Wannstedt, Herm Edwards twice, Belichick three times, Billick with Rex Ryan, Pete Carroll. There are some great defensive coaches in there, and some really great defenses.

What I've never seen anybody mention is that four of his worst playoff performances -- pass ratings of 71.9, 39.6, 79.1, and 81.8 -- were the four games in the 2006 season that ended with the Super Bowl ring, while some of his best performances were one-and-dones in 07, 08, and 10.

I tend to agree with the Football Outsiders' analysis of the Manning-era Colts. Polian wasn't trying to build a dynasty. He had his offense, and was mostly assembling defenses with the goal that they wouldn't suck enough that the offense would carry them all the way. One could argue with some force that given that approach, the Colts were lucky to end up with even one ring.

He is certainly not in the Aaron Rodgers, Bart Starr, Kurt Warner Drew Brees, or Joe Montana class as far as post season passer rating and has only 1 4QC despite playing in more playoff games than everyone but Brady.

He is definitley one of the best QBs ever but you can't say that about his postseaason performance.

[Jeremy Crowhurst]

Polian wasn't trying to build a dynasty? So if he had a good draft class one year, he would intentionally tank the next year just so the Colts wouldn't become a dynasty?

No. That's not what it means.

Polian's goal was that the defense wouldn't suck enough that the offense would carry them all the way? So if Polian had a chance to acquire a HOF defensive talent, he would instead choose a defensive player of lesser talent so the Colts offense could continue to carry the team?

Yes. That was their point. See, there's this thing in the NFL called a "salary cap", which means GMs have to make decisions about how to allocate resources. Shockingly, if a GM spends $50 million on a defensive end, then that's $50 million less that he would have to spend on offensive stars. Go figure.

But I do agree that if the Colts weren't trying to build a dynasty or assemble a good defense, one could argue with some force that the Colts were lucky to end up with even one ring. I would think that 11 playoff appearances in 12 years for the Manning-era Colts would contradict the idea that Polian wasn't trying...

Excellent point. I had no idea that the Colts made the playoffs that often. If only there was some kind of website on which one could reference pro football stats, team and player histories, that sort of thing, then people like me wouldn't make such inane comments. Thanks for clearing it up.

[Bob Gill]

This might come as a surprise (it did to me when I discovered it a couple of years ago), but Manning's passer rating for all of his playoff games, including Sunday's, is 88.5. Tom Brady's is 88.0. You can look it up.

[Bryan]

No. That's not what it means.

So, what DOES it mean? Again, not really sure how I am supposed to interpret that comment.

See, there's this thing in the NFL called a "salary cap", which means GMs have to make decisions about how to allocate resources. Shockingly, if a GM spends $50 million on a defensive end, then that's $50 million less that he would have to spend on offensive stars. Go figure.

I looked at the drafts the Colts made in the Manning-era, expecting to find an inordinate number of high draft picks spent on offense. I found the opposite...the Colts usually spent their high picks on defensive players. I guess Polian made a major mistake when he drafted guys like Freeney and Sanders?

Excellent point. I had no idea that the Colts made the playoffs that often. If only there was some kind of website on which one could reference pro football stats, team and player histories, that sort of thing, then people like me wouldn't make such inane comments. Thanks for clearing it up.

Thanks for the response. Polian was a genius in walking the thin line between "not trying to build a dynasty" and "going to the playoffs 11 out of 12 years". It must be similar to the Atlanta Braves, who never tried to win a World Series and would seemingly win games in spite of their efforts to be mediocre.

[Ronfitch]

Norv got the Chargers to the AFC Championship, which Marty hadn't done. Callahan got the Raiders to the Super Bowl, which Gruden hadn't done. Pardee did better with the Oilers than Glanville had done. There are about 15 examples of a playoff coach leaving (fired or otherwise) and the replacement doing a bit better either the following year or within a couple of years.

Tony Dungy - three straight trips to the playoffs (and three losses) and a regular season record during those seasons of 30-18. The following year, Gruden (who Jeremy cites above) steps in and they win the SB.

[SixtiesFan]

Norv got the Chargers to the AFC Championship, which Marty hadn't done. Callahan got the Raiders to the Super Bowl, which Gruden hadn't done. Pardee did better with the Oilers than Glanville had done. There are about 15 examples of a playoff coach leaving (fired or otherwise) and the replacement doing a bit better either the following year or within a couple of years.

Tony Dungy - three straight trips to the playoffs (and three losses) and a regular season record during those seasons of 30-18. The following year, Gruden (who Jeremy cites above) steps in and they win the SB.

Ray Malavasi did get the LA Rams to the Super Bowl in his second season, 1979. Chuck Knox never did despite five straight NFC West titles during 1973-77.