2022 outlook going into Wk#13's NO@TB MNF matchup

[Brian wolf]

I feel bad for Mariota in Atlanta ... Maybe his knee got worse during his last start and requires surgery but it must not have affected him before because he wasnt listed on injury reports?
Maybe he got upset over losing his starting job, had heated discussions with his HC and was put on IR to have a respite with his new family rather than being demoted to third string?
Its too bad because I was hoping he could win eight starts with his team.

Beware, young betting fans ... We spectators dont really know what or which injuries could be severe or not? I have been skeptical of players being in and out of starting lineups for years because of how fantasy football works ... The days of ironmen at every position is loooong gone.

[JWL]

I was waiting until about a ¼ of the regular season was left to weigh in on this. I think by now it should be pretty clear who the contenders, pretenders, and also-rans are in the league this year. So I'll get right to it with my current rankings for the top teams in each conference:

AFC: 1) BUF, 2) CIN, 3) K.C., 4) MIA, 5) TEN/BAL, 6) BAL/TEN

NFC: 1) PHI, 2) SFO, 3) the team based in TX, 4) MIN, 5) DET, 6) T.B., 7) WAS, 8) SEA/NYG, 9) NYG/SEA

Obviously the playoffs can spring surprises on us all but at this point I honestly don't see any of the teams further down than 3rd on either of those lists as being true contenders for the Lombardi Trophy this year. We'll see!

In the AFC, the top teams are the Bills, Bengals, and Chiefs in some order. Next up are the Dolphins, Ravens, and the Jets in some order. It would be a shame if any of these teams gets a severe injury, stumbles down the stretch, and misses the playoffs.

Then the lesser teams who will make the playoffs or sniff around for a spot are the Titans (automatic due to their division unless Jacksonville catches them), Chargers, and Patriots.


In the NFC, the top teams are the Eagles and 49ers. The next tier consists of the Vikings and the team named after guys who ride on horses and wrangle cows and wear stirrups and maybe have a piece of straw in their mouth. The lesser NFC teams in the playoff hunt are the Commanders, Lions, Giants, Seahawks, and the NFC South winner. These teams might combine for one playoff win.

[Brian wolf]

Comeback player of the year or not ... This season could be slipping away for Geno Smith and the Seahawks. Purdy relevant for the Niners, who is the best #13 for SF since Steve Bono went 5-1 in 1991 ...

[74_75_78_79_]

Comeback player of the year or not ... This season could be slipping away for Geno Smith and the Seahawks. Purdy relevant for the Niners, who is the best #13 for SF since Steve Bono went 5-1 in 1991 ...

Despite just two games, you already get the sense that Jimmy G has already lost his job when he gets healthy again. Alex Smith syndrome, he has, with what would be a nice touch of Wally Pipp.

Could Steeler's close loss at home last week to a division rival possibly end up being reminiscent of when they lost to the Oilers on Week #13 in '89? If you watch old NFL PrimeTime highlights of that game, Berman & Co were saying nothing of the sort about the still-mathematical possibility of Pittsburgh making it (they were now 6-7 as Oilers were atop the division at 8-5, Browns 7-5-1, and Cincy 7-6). Yet they win-out and make it with plenty of help on that final week from three other teams! Can the 'Burgh win-out in this case thus Tomlin extending his non-losing-season streak?

[ChrisBabcock]

Despite just two games, you already get the sense that Jimmy G has already lost his job when he gets healthy again. Alex Smith syndrome, he has, with what would be a nice touch of Wally Pipp.

Speaking as a 49er fan, and as sad as it is for me to say this because he's such a likeable player, it really makes zero sense to bring Jimmy back next year. He's on a one year deal this year so they would have to sign him to a new contract. That isn't going to happen after the emergence of Purdy who they have on a rookie deal.

[Terry Baldshaw]

Comeback player of the year or not ... This season could be slipping away for Geno Smith and the Seahawks. Purdy relevant for the Niners, who is the best #13 for SF since Steve Bono went 5-1 in 1991 ...

Despite just two games, you already get the sense that Jimmy G has already lost his job when he gets healthy again. Alex Smith syndrome, he has, with what would be a nice touch of Wally Pipp.

Could Steeler's close loss at home last week to a division rival possibly end up being reminiscent of when they lost to the Oilers on Week #13 in '89? If you watch old NFL PrimeTime highlights of that game, Berman & Co were saying nothing of the sort about the still-mathematical possibility of Pittsburgh making it (they were now 6-7 as Oilers were atop the division at 8-5, Browns 7-5-1, and Cincy 7-6). Yet they win-out and make it with plenty of help on that final week from three other teams! Can the 'Burgh win-out in this case thus Tomlin extending his non-losing-season streak?

No!!!

[Reaser]

[That wasn't a slight on the Jets at all. In fact, the other way around. I acknowledged both Minn and NYJ as if to say that those are quality opponents ahead for Detroit; and if they can just get past them (win both those games), the rest of schedule would be relatively easy.

Now the pre-season pick I made having Jets at 4-13? Yes, terrible call. I clearly won't predict such a thing of them next pre-season. But if you look back, I realized right before opening kickoff that 4-13 was too harsh. But I still thought they'd finish in 4th due to feeling the Buffalo's regular season would be what everyone else expected, me thinking Dolphins woild win-it-all, and the other team being HC'd by...Belichick!

The Lions did end up winning both games you mentioned. Good foresight. Now they have a very good shot at getting the last Wild Card spot.

As for your Jets call. It wasn't terrible. There's a huge difference between someone picking out 1 of 32 teams and saying: "they look like a 6, 7, 8 or 9 win team to me." As a prediction someone can literally say that about every team. Difference between that and what you did. Which was picking every single game on the schedule and at the end the W/L records for every team in the league were what they were. The exercise is more about putting teams in order/ranking. Which in that case, I believe you had the AFC East as BUF, MIA, NE, NYJ, which would be exactly the order the teams are in as of current. That's not terrible, that's currently 100% accurate and correct.

Plus, if you look at the Jets wins, they essentially have been the most fortunate team in the league in terms of when they got to play their opponents, particularly those teams QB's.

Browns - obviously Brissett starting by default (lot of teams got to play against him for the same reason so not exclusive to the Jets) and can say it how you want, either the Browns gave away the game or the Jets won it. It was inexplicable either way and with the starting point of the one-point Jets win being a Browns TD run followed by a missed PAT.

Steelers - Got them when they were still messing around with Trubisky (triumphant return as the starter today!) who was benched this game for Pickett, who came in making his rookie debut and threw some ridiculous Zach Wilson'esque ints but also ran for a couple TDs. Despite facing PIT in the middle of their QB transformation the Jets still needed a late drive and TD with under half a minute to go to squeak out the four-point win.

Dolphins - Got Miami in their first game post-Tua getting KO'd in the previous two games. So they got to face backup Teddy Two Gloves, for one pass attempt and he was promptly knocked out of the game. So they really got to face 3rd string QB Skyler Thompson. Was a close game until the 4Q and then the Jets ran away with it.

Packers - Got to play GB the week after Rodgers broke his thumb, his first start with the broken thumb and also got to play them essentially at/near the peak of their out-of-sync offense.

Broncos - Got to play DEN with Brett Rypien making his first start of the season and 2nd start of his career, with Russell Wilson missing his first game of the season. Jets only won by 7.

Bills - Signature win for the Jets. The playing against an injured (or backup or 3rd string) QB narrative only slightly continues since this was the game Josh Allen injured his elbow. But that was with the Jets up 3 and on the final possession. Post-injury Allen skipped a pass downfield and then came up a little short to Gabe Davis who had a step on the DB. Jets win by 3.

Bears - A perfect summation of the "when they got to play them" schedule fortune. Fields was out with his shoulder injury. Backup Trevor Siemian to start. Naturally, he gets injured in pregame warmups, literally a season-ending injury he was put on IR for after the game! Yet, he still played this entire game -even threw a TD- but the Jets won pretty easily.

Those are the Jets wins. You predicted 4 (I thought it was 3?!) but it's not like you could have predicted the Browns inexplicable collapse, predicted when or that it'd be middle of the Jets game the Steelers would bring in their rookie QB to make his debut, or predicted that the Dolphins would essentially be playing their 3rd string QB all game, or predicted that Rodgers would play the Jets a week after breaking his thumb, or predicted that Russell Wilson would miss the Jets game with a hamstring injury, or predicted that Justin Fields would have an injured shoulder and Trevor Siemian would get a season ending injury in warmups but still play the game against the Jets.

So I wouldn't say you made a terrible call. You predicted the Jets to finish last in the AFC East, they are currently in last place in the AFC East. You predicted 3 or 4 wins, they have 7 with arguably just the Bills as the only game that wasn't extremely good fortune/luck as to when they got to face a team during the season and faced what was going on with those teams Quarterback situation(s) at the time.

To go the other way, they did lose Hall to injury and he looks like he'll be a good one. Also looks like they found a #1 WR. Defense is good enough.

But how this season was going to go, or would have gone in anything resembling normal circumstances for their opponents and their opponents QBs. I definitely wouldn't say it was a horrible call or that you have even been proven wrong, to this point. It becomes a "miss" prediction if the Jets win their last 3 games and make the playoffs or if they do something positive to where they are nowhere close to what you predicted, such as they don't continue their active NFL leading streak of the most consecutive losing seasons. As it stands now, I don't think you're far off on what you predicted, at all. Other than a handful of games on the W/L record due more to opponents [QB] circumstances and less because the Jets are significantly better than where you had them.

[JWL]

That is the argument against the Jets. They don't have to give the wins back, though.

I haven't seen any opposing fans not count wins vs the Jets the past 11 seasons. Also, the Jets have had numerous key injuries. The offensive line has been mixed and matched all season and they lost their best offensive lineman for the rest of the year the same day they lost their best running back for the rest of the year.

Also, the Jets chose to start Joe Flacco three times so, I guess like the Bengals and Ravens should put asterisks next to those wins.

[racepug]

Comeback player of the year or not ... This season could be slipping away for Geno Smith and the Seahawks.

"Could"? The Seahawks had exactly one four-week stretch of good football this season. Other than that they've been pretty awful (on "D," in particular). I expect very little from them the rest of this season.

[racepug]

Purdy relevant for the Niners, who is the best #13 for SF since Steve Bono went 5-1 in 1991 ...

I'm generally not one to "buy into the hype" or make a broad assessment of a player based on such a small sample size but what I've seen of Brock Purdy I have been VERY impressed with. I personally can't recall having seen a QB picked so low in the draft show so much poise as he has so far. Hopefully he can keep them going into the playoffs 'cause as of right now I think the San Francisco 49ers are a good bet to make it to at least the NFC Championship Game (and very possibly even further, given Jalen Hurts' injury).