Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

Trying to calculate this again (we had an old thread, but my thinking has evolved since then).

Assumptions:
-roster size = 35
-No rookies or retirees (this is just for simplification)

Hypothesis (H): If the NFL and AAFC had roughly the same caliber of players, when the number of teams was reduced from 17 to 13, roughly 595-455 = 140 players should have been displaced evenly across leagues.

What does "evenly across teams" mean?

Let x = 140/17
Since the AAFC had 7 teams, we’d expect 245 - 7x =~ 187 AAFC players to have been in the league in 1950.

For a quick check, In 1949, about 59% of pro players were NFL and 41% AAFC, so if H holds, 455*.41 (roughly 187 again) '49 AAFC players should be playing in '50.

Does that sound about right? And does anyone know what the number was? Is the answer in the PFRA AAFC book?

The PFRA AAFC book (shameless plug for Reaser and myself) would answer that question. You can also look at the dispersal draft in the MO section of the PFRA website. That would not cover the undrafted players, but the player register in the AAFC book (another shameless plug) would give the final answer as to how many players played in the NFL after the AAFC. Also, keep in mind that some players went to Canada to play. Some of those came back to the NFL after Canada, others retired after Canada.

Thanks Ken. I new I'd have to pick that book up eventually

TanksAndSpartans wrote:Trying to calculate this again (we had an old thread, but my thinking has evolved since then).

Assumptions:
-roster size = 35
-No rookies or retirees (this is just for simplification)

Hypothesis (H): If the NFL and AAFC had roughly the same caliber of players, when the number of teams was reduced from 17 to 13, roughly 595-455 = 140 players should have been displaced evenly across leagues.

What does "evenly across teams" mean?

Let x = 140/17
Since the AAFC had 7 teams, we’d expect 245 - 7x =~ 187 AAFC players to have been in the league in 1950.

For a quick check, In 1949, about 59% of pro players were NFL and 41% AAFC, so if H holds, 455*.41 (roughly 187 again) '49 AAFC players should be playing in '50.

Does that sound about right? And does anyone know what the number was? Is the answer in the PFRA AAFC book?

446 players played in the NFL in 1950.

121 played in the AAFC in 1949 (246 played in the AAFC that year).

199 played in the NFL in 1949 (335 played in the NFL that year).

This includes 3 who played in both leagues in 1949.

90 were 1950 draft picks (including George Roman who played in the NFL in 1949).

The other 40 were variety of players who were drafted pre-1950, rookie free agents, players from other leagues (most notably Frank Filchock who played in Canada in 1949) and a few apparently missed the 1949 season due to injuries.

Thanks Tod. Great reply. I really appreciate it.

My back of the envelope calculation is telling me the data supports the leagues being roughly equal.

320 players who played in '49, played in '50. I wanted to see a 41/59 split, but it looks like 38/62. Close enough for me. I may have to finally change sides on this argument

You should still get the PFRA's AAFC book.
It is a great addition to any football library (required reading, imho).

TanksAndSpartans wrote:My back of the envelope calculation is telling me the data supports the leagues being roughly equal.

320 players who played in '49, played in '50. I wanted to see a 41/59 split, but it looks like 38/62. Close enough for me. I may have to finally change sides on this argument

Some of the percentages from what Tod posted:
AAFC had 42% of the AAFC/NFL players that played in 1949.
AAFC had 49% of their 1949 players play in the NFL in 1950.
AAFC had 38% of the non-rookies (or other leagues) players in the NFL in 1950.

Context:
AAFC [officially] had 3 of their teams in the 13-team merged league in 1950, 23% of the teams were AAFC teams.
AAFC -counting the Yankees players to the Yanks- unofficially had 4 of their teams in the 13-team merged league, 31%.
AAFC can say 31% of the teams in the 1950 NFL, but 38% of non-rookie players were from the AAFC.
NFL can say 69% of the teams in the 1950 NFL, but 62% of non-rookie players were from the NFL.

And, obviously, numbers don't include players like Spec Sanders who didn't play in '49 but was an "AAFC player" who played in the 1950 NFL. Or players that played in the AAFC any year(s) 1946-1948 that were in the NFL in 1949 (e.g. Hirsch, Dove, etc.) Which would obviously increase the amount of "AAFC players" that played in the NFL in 1950.

Looking at the 1950 Pro Bowl rosters:

7 rookies (Zollie Toth, Leo Nomellini, Thurman McGraw, Woodley Lewis, Doak Walker, Lou Creekmur, and Glenn Davis)

18 AAFC players (including Spec Sanders)
38 NFL players

So 32% of the Pro Bowl rosters, among veterans, were AAFC guys. Not sure if that's higher or lower than expected. Of the 18, 7 came from the '49 Browns, 4 from the '49 49ers, 4 from the Yankees (if you include Sanders), and the rest were scattered.

I think maybe the numbers are skewed somewhat because 3 entire AAFC teams were admitted to the NFL in the merger.

To gauge the overall level of competition, I think we need to know what percentage of AAFC players who were not on any of those AAFC teams made it in the NFL in 1950.

ChaseStuart wrote:Looking at the 1950 Pro Bowl rosters:

7 rookies (Zollie Toth, Leo Nomellini, Thurman McGraw, Woodley Lewis, Doak Walker, Lou Creekmur, and Glenn Davis)

18 AAFC players (including Spec Sanders)
38 NFL players

So 32% of the Pro Bowl rosters, among veterans, were AAFC guys. Not sure if that's higher or lower than expected. Of the 18, 7 came from the '49 Browns, 4 from the '49 49ers, 4 from the Yankees (if you include Sanders), and the rest were scattered.

AAFC players fared much better on all of the all-pro teams in 1950 than in the Pro Bowl selections. Here’s the breakdown for the first teams selected by the AP, UP and New York Daily News (the AP and UP selected 11 players, the News 22):

AP: 5 AAFC, 5 NFL, one rookie
UP: 5 AAFC, 4 NFL, two rookies
NY Daily News: 10 AAFC, 11 NFL, one rookie

Each league got 20 of the overall first team selections, with four slots taken by rookies.

The NFL had higher representation on the second teams. Taking together the first and second teams by the three media outlets combined, excluding rookies, the NFL got 46 (56%) and the AAFC 36 (44%).