Re: Special teams finalists
Posted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:18 am
Seems like Steve Tasker needs to be here
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Rupert Patrick wrote:For my upcoming book (I can't really say upcoming, as it officially went out to the publisher last week; it won't be published until probably late next year) I used PAL and PAL2 per 16 games like you did in my ratings lists.JohnTurney wrote:What I did with this is use PAL/16...multily it times 16 gamesRupert Patrick wrote:
PAL/G is PAL divided by games played
PAL2/G is PAL2 divided by games played
.
that way, the numbers are not so tight and you can say it
in a per season context.
"The result is the number of points above or below average the kicker was relative to the league"
and to me per 16 games give some separation....
Also agree with you on your predictions. I think this was
just a typical excercise by the voters, not looking at
anything in depth, just a rubber stamp of conventional
wisdom.
That's the problem I always had with net punting average, is that it is too dependent upon the punter's teammates. On most punts, the punter does not run down to the field of action where he just punted the ball, he lays back a distance, as he is often the last guy in waiting should the returner get past everybody else. The Raiders after 2002 were an awful team pretty much for the rest of Lechler's career there, and I have to think the higher punt return average is probably not due to Lechler but rather to his special teams who are assigned the task of stopping the return guy. Yet Lechler is the one who gets tagged for the higher return average on his punts when he wasn't the one making virtually any of the tackles.JohnTurney wrote:Lechler 20th in net, 1st in gross. I know there are better ways, but for a thumbnail---his
8.5 difference between gross and net is telling,
Also 5 blocks is not awful, about average .35% but 7 TDs isnt great
His average return was 11 yards when league average was 8 or so
Very aware of all those numbers. They were taken into account.boknows34 wrote:How much further was Lechler’s gross average to league average?
Lechler’s peak was from 2007-11. Not only was he either 1st or 2nd for gross punting over those 5 seasons he led the NFL in net punting average for three consecutive seasons (2007-09) and was 2nd and 5th for the following two years as well. For those first 12 seasons (2000-11) he led the NFL in net four times, and was Top 3 six times in total.
The two seasons where Lechler ranked outside the Top 20 in Net avg from 2000-11 were 2002 and 2006. The latter was a bad year with 19 punts inside the 20 and 19 touchbacks. The 2002 season was when the Raiders won the AFC Championships and Lechler had career lows by quite a margin for both gross (42.5) and net punting (32.7). Both numbers were significantly lower than his 2nd lowest season averages of 45.7 gross and 36.4 net.
I’ll take an educated guess he was kicking to a much shorter field in 2002 hence the much lower numbers. His 18-12 ratio wasn’t that great either to be fair so that was certainly a factor too. He was probably seeing a lot more punts from midfield and the opponents’ 45 than from his own 30. Those are the only two seasons I can criticise.
Also worth noting that while Lechler’s rankings of 16th and 9th for net average in his last two seasons in Houston don’t jump off the page, he had a combined 62 punts Inside the 20, compared with only 8 Touchbacks. In 2016, his 30/3 gave him a career best 10/1 ratio for Inside 20/TB, while his 18th and final season was the second best (41.3) of his career for net average (career high 43.9 in 2009). Lechler was still a very effective punter but his rankings were hurt by the overall strength and improvement of punters during the 2010s.
All football statistics are dependant on others. I understand your point and have thought about that for a long time, since I started following it. However, it's not so bad so asRupert Patrick wrote:
That's the problem I always had with net punting average, is that it is too dependent upon the punter's teammates. On most punts, the punter does not run down to the field of action where he just punted the ball, he lays back a distance, as he is often the last guy in waiting should the returner get past everybody else.
Well if someone wants to celebrate Lechler as someone who is better than the previous generation's punters that is fine. If we go by numbers guys like Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan's numbers crush Johnny Unitas or Sonny Jurgensen's for the same reason you cited "a huge spike" in net passing statistics.boknows34 wrote:Lechler’s career net average is still better than every punter who started their career before his 2000 rookie season.
There had been a huge spike in net punting average in the last decade or so. Is this down to great punting or is punt coverage that much better? Lechler will always be known for his huge leg and not his placement punts but I can’t ding him too hard when he led the NFL four times in net average during his 12 season peak (2000-11), and when he’s more renowned for his gross average.
Gross average has also taken a huge jump this century. Ray Guy’s raw numbers look very mediocre by today’s standards and it’s not that long ago when Sammy Baugh was still the career leader in gross average.