Dropped Passes

Oszuscik
Posts: 169
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:34 pm

Dropped Passes

Post by Oszuscik »

The play by play in gamebooks used to always make note of when a receiver dropped a pass, but starting around the 1990's dropped passes were never noted, they were just scored like any other incomplete pass.

Does anyone know of any sources that actually track dropped passes dating back to the 1990's?

Thank you!
TodMaher
Posts: 368
Joined: Sat Nov 22, 2014 4:43 pm

Re: Dropped Passes

Post by TodMaher »

Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus - but I don't know how far back.
NWebster
Posts: 549
Joined: Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:21 pm

Re: Dropped Passes

Post by NWebster »

TodMaher wrote:Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus - but I don't know how far back.
I believe FO started chatting in '04. I chatted for them one year on '05. PFF started in '07. actually halfway through 2007, but years later they went back and filled in the gaps. Prior to that stats ink would be the best choice, but their model is to sell to organizations and leagues, not to provide data directly to individuals like they used to in books and such. but if you look at some of their books from the '90s you can find dropped passes.

The game books stopped including them as the NFL standardized them, which really started with the internet era, as early as around 1994.
User avatar
JohnR
Posts: 328
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:40 pm

Re: Dropped Passes

Post by JohnR »

It might be fun to create a list of the "top 20 most consequential drops" in NFL history. Just a few that immediately come to mind...
1942- Down 14-6 in the 4th qtr of the title game, Ray McClean (with a step on two defenders) drops a long throw at midfield. Hit him in the numbers.
1960- On the play just before Bednarik levels Gifford (11/20), Bob Schnelker drops a perfect Shaw bomb on the goal line. Eagles edge Giants for div title.
1961- Needing a week 14 win to force a playoff with the Giants, Ray Renfro drops Plum's late pass deep in NY territory. Ends in a tie sending NY to GB.
2012- Wes Welker drops what would have ben a game clinching 1st down in SB XLVI.
BD Sullivan
Posts: 2318
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2014 1:30 pm

Re: Dropped Passes

Post by BD Sullivan »

JohnR wrote:It might be fun to create a list of the "top 20 most consequential drops" in NFL history. Just a few that immediately come to mind...
1961- Needing a week 14 win to force a playoff with the Giants, Ray Renfro drops Plum's late pass deep in NY territory. Ends in a tie sending NY to GB.
Renfro's drop led Paul Brown to coldly note that Renfro used to be able to make the big catch.

Other memorable drops:

*Jackie Smith in SB XIII

*The Browns' Dennis Northcutt in the 02 WC game. His drop would have (presumably) clinched the game, but instead gave the ball back to the Steelers, who scored to win with 58 seconds left.
rhickok1109
Posts: 1473
Joined: Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:57 am

Re: Dropped Passes

Post by rhickok1109 »

On Christmas Eve 1995, a wide-open Yancey Thigpen dropped Neil O'Donnell's 4th-down pass in the Lambeau Field endzone with 11 seconds remaining. That gave the Packers a 24-19 win over the Steelers. As a result, the Packers finished with an 11-5 record to edge out the Lions for the NFC Central title.
rhickok1109
Posts: 1473
Joined: Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:57 am

Re: Dropped Passes

Post by rhickok1109 »

One big trouble with tabulating dropped passes is that it's quite subjective. What one observer calls a drop might be called a poorly thrown pass by another observer.

For example, I don't consider consider Wes Welker's Super Bowl "drop" to be a drop at all. The ball was thrown high and to the wrong side and Welker had to make a twisting leap in his attempt to catch it.
conace21
Posts: 927
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:08 am

Re: Dropped Passes

Post by conace21 »

rhickok1109 wrote:One big trouble with tabulating dropped passes is that it's quite subjective. What one observer calls a drop might be called a poorly thrown pass by another observer.

For example, I don't consider consider Wes Welker's Super Bowl "drop" to be a drop at all. The ball was thrown high and to the wrong side and Welker had to make a twisting leap in his attempt to catch it.
There were only 9 seconds left to play in a 1989 AFC Divisional playoff game when Ronnie Harmon dropped a pass from Jim Kelly in the corner of the end zone. Clay Matthews intercepted Kelly on the next play to send Cleveland to face Denver in the AFC Championship Game for the third time in four years.

A ball can both be poorly thrown, and dropped; Welker is a good example of it. He had the ball hit him in the hands, but it would have been an outstanding catch if he had come down with it.
With Ronnie Harmon, the ball bounced off his hands; Harmon later said he was worried about staying in bounds and that Kelly held the ball a tick too long. He might be right, it looks like if Harmon had held on to the ball, one foot may have been out of bounds (but he also likely would have tried harder to drag his 2nd foot if he had held on to the ball.)

Even Jackie Smith had to make a low sliding catch. Staubach afterwards took 50% of the blame. That's being a little generous, but he definitely took too much off the pass.
Last edited by conace21 on Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
JohnR
Posts: 328
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:40 pm

Re: Dropped Passes

Post by JohnR »

rhickok1109 wrote:One big trouble with tabulating dropped passes is that it's quite subjective. What one observer calls a drop might be called a poorly thrown pass by another observer.

For example, I don't consider consider Wes Welker's Super Bowl "drop" to be a drop at all. The ball was thrown high and to the wrong side and Welker had to make a twisting leap in his attempt to catch it.
Yes, while he got both hands on it it seems a little cruel to label it a drop as the ball could have been thrown better. Drops should be relatively easy catches flubbed with little or no interference from defenders.
Andy Piascik
Posts: 155
Joined: Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:32 pm

Re: Dropped Passes

Post by Andy Piascik »

Regarding Renfro's drop in the 1961 season finale versus the Giants, the Browns had been eliminated the week before so the play did not impact their postseason hopes. However, if Cleveland had won that game, Philadelphia would have tied New York and the two would have played in a playoff the following week.
Post Reply